The Free DCF calculator that actually pulls live data.
Estimate a stock's intrinsic value using real financial data and customizable assumptions. Adjust growth rates, discount rates, and terminal values to see how different scenarios impact your valuation. The sensitivity table highlights how changes in key inputs can affect the fair value estimate for a company.
AAPLProjected Cash Flows
Valuation Results
Sensitivity Analysis
| WACC \ TGR → | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $142 | $166 | $182 | $201 | $226 |
| 8.0% | $121 | $137 | $148 | $160 | $175 |
| 9.0% | $105 | $117 | $124 | $133 | $143 |
| 10.0% | $93 | $102 | $107 | $113 | $120 |
| 11.0% | $83 | $90 | $94 | $98 | $104 |
Valuation Breakdown
Year by year, line by line
Every projected cash flow, its discount factor, and what it is worth in today's dollars.
| Year | Projected CF | Growth | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $104.97B | 8.0% | 0.917 | $96.31B |
| Year 2 | $113.37B | 8.0% | 0.842 | $95.42B |
| Year 3 | $122.44B | 8.0% | 0.772 | $94.55B |
| Year 4 | $132.24B | 8.0% | 0.708 | $93.68B |
| Year 5 | $142.82B | 8.0% | 0.650 | $92.82B |
| Terminal | $2.25T | 2.5% | 0.650 | $1.46T |
| Total present value (enterprise value) | $1.94T | |||
What is a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)?
A Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) is a valuation method used to estimate the intrinsic value aka the maximum price you should pay for a company, stock, or investment based on its expected future cash flows. The principle behind DCF is that money received in the future is worth less than money received today due to inflation, risk, and the opportunity cost of other investments.
The DCF model projects a company's future free cash flows over a specific period and discounts them back to their present value using a discount rate. By summing the present value of the projected cash flows and the terminal value, investors can estimate what a business is worth today.
Our DCF Calculator uses live financial data where available and allows you to customize growth assumptions, discount rates, and terminal growth rates to build your own valuation model.
Free Cash Flow (NOPAT)
Free Cash Flow represents the actual cash available to all capital providers. In this calculator, we use Net Operating Profit After Tax (NOPAT) as a simplified proxy for Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCFF). This assumes that Depreciation & Amortization (D&A) roughly offsets Capital Expenditures (CapEx), and changes in net working capital are neutral over the projection period—a standard industry practice for simplified online valuation models.
Why Free Cash Flow Matters
Investors often prefer free cash flow over accounting earnings or profit because it reflects actual cash generated by the business. Companies with growing and sustainable free cash flow generally have greater flexibility to reinvest, reduce debt, pay dividends, or repurchase shares.
What discount rate should you use?
The discount rate is your required return, often the weighted average cost of capital. It is the single biggest lever in the model after growth.
Large, stable (8 to 10%)
Standard for large, predictable US companies. Roughly the long term return of the S&P 500.
Average (10 to 12%)
A middle ground for companies with moderate risk or less certain cash flows.
Small or risky (12 to 15%+)
For smaller, more leveraged, or less predictable businesses where the extra risk demands a higher return.
DCF Formula, five key inputs is all you need
The whole equation reduces to a weighted sum. Everything else is just figuring out the inputs.
AAPL's DCF Calculation Example, line by line
Using current financial data and analyst assumptions. Numbers are rounded for readability. The calculator above will produce the unrounded version.
AAPL Inc.
Project Free Cash Flow (NOPAT)
Base Revenue = $385.71B (Margin: 30.0%, Tax: 16.0%) Starting FCF (NOPAT) = $97.20B Growth Rate = 8.0% Year 1 FCF = $104.97B Year 5 FCF = $142.82B
Discount Future Cash Flows
Discount Rate (WACC) = 9.0% Year 1 PV = $104.97B ÷ 1.09 = $96.31B Year 5 PV = $142.82B ÷ 1.09⁵ = $92.82B PV of Forecast period = $472.78B
Calculate Terminal Value
Terminal Growth = 2.5% Year 6 FCF = $146.39B TV = FCF₆ ÷ (WACC - g) TV = $2.25T (PV of TV = $1.46T)
Determine Intrinsic Value
PV of Cash Flows ($472.78B) + PV of TV ($1.46T) = EV: $1.94T Equity Value = EV - Net Debt ($23.00B) = $1.91T Shares Outstanding = 15400.0M Fair Value = $1.91T ÷ 15400.0M = $124.25
When DCF works, and when it does not
A DCF is only as good as the predictability of the cash flows behind it.
Works well for
Works poorly for
Six mistakes that wreck your DCF model
If your DCF valuation looks too high or too low, it's usually one of these.
Unrealistic growth assumptions
Small changes in growth rates can dramatically increase a company's valuation. Assuming a business can grow at 20%+ for a decade is rarely realistic.
Use historical performance, industry trends, and management guidance to support your forecasts.
Using the wrong discount rate
The discount rate reflects risk. Using a rate that's too low can inflate intrinsic value, while a rate that's too high can make great businesses look overpriced.
Always ensure your discount rate matches the risk profile of the company being analyzed.
Overestimating terminal value
For many DCF models, terminal value represents more than half of the total valuation.
Using a terminal growth rate that's too aggressive can significantly distort the final result. Long-term growth assumptions should generally remain below long-term economic growth.
Forecasting cash flows without understanding the business
A DCF model is only as good as its assumptions. If future cash flows aren't grounded in the company's business model, competitive position, and market opportunity, the valuation becomes meaningless.
Spend more time understanding the business than building the model.
Treating DCF as an exact answer
A DCF is not a prediction, it's a framework for estimating value.
Two reasonable investors can use different assumptions and arrive at very different valuations. That's why sensitivity analysis is essential.
Ignoring scenario analysis
Building a single DCF model creates false confidence.
Instead, create Bull, Base, and Bear cases using different growth and discount rate assumptions. The range of outcomes is often more valuable than a single fair value estimate.
Questions analysts actually ask.
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