Estimate a stock's intrinsic value using real financial data and customizable assumptions. Adjust growth rates, discount rates, and terminal values to see how different scenarios impact your valuation. The sensitivity table highlights how changes in key inputs can affect the fair value estimate for a company.
| WACC \ TGR → | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $142 | $166 | $182 | $201 | $226 |
| 8.0% | $121 | $137 | $148 | $160 | $175 |
| 9.0% | $105 | $117 | $124 | $133 | $143 |
| 10.0% | $93 | $102 | $107 | $113 | $120 |
| 11.0% | $83 | $90 | $94 | $98 | $104 |
Every projected cash flow, its discount factor, and what it is worth in today's dollars.
| Year | Projected CF | Growth | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $104.97B | 8.0% | 0.917 | $96.31B |
| Year 2 | $113.37B | 8.0% | 0.842 | $95.42B |
| Year 3 | $122.44B | 8.0% | 0.772 | $94.55B |
| Year 4 | $132.24B | 8.0% | 0.708 | $93.68B |
| Year 5 | $142.82B | 8.0% | 0.650 | $92.82B |
| Terminal | $2.25T | 2.5% | 0.650 | $1.46T |
| Total present value (enterprise value) | $1.94T | |||
The discount rate is your required return, often the weighted average cost of capital. It is the single biggest lever in the model after growth.
Standard for large, predictable US companies. Roughly the long term return of the S&P 500.
A middle ground for companies with moderate risk or less certain cash flows.
For smaller, more leveraged, or less predictable businesses where the extra risk demands a higher return.
The whole equation reduces to a weighted sum. Everything else is just figuring out the inputs.
Using current financial data and analyst assumptions. Numbers are rounded for readability. The calculator above will produce the unrounded version.
Base Revenue = $385.71B (Margin: 30.0%, Tax: 16.0%) Starting FCF (NOPAT) = $97.20B Growth Rate = 8.0% Year 1 FCF = $104.97B Year 5 FCF = $142.82B
Discount Rate (WACC) = 9.0% Year 1 PV = $104.97B ÷ 1.09 = $96.31B Year 5 PV = $142.82B ÷ 1.09⁵ = $92.82B PV of Forecast period = $472.78B
Terminal Growth = 2.5% Year 6 FCF = $146.39B TV = FCF₆ ÷ (WACC - g) TV = $2.25T (PV of TV = $1.46T)
PV of Cash Flows ($472.78B) + PV of TV ($1.46T) = EV: $1.94T Equity Value = EV - Net Debt ($23.00B) = $1.91T Shares Outstanding = 15400.0M Fair Value = $1.91T ÷ 15400.0M = $124.25
A DCF is only as good as the predictability of the cash flows behind it.
If your DCF valuation looks too high or too low, it's usually one of these.
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